A 10-lineup portfolio wins the $2.75M Millionaire at 234.20
Light on every chalk running back, heavy on Kyren Williams, and stacked across 10 QB teams.
- The oluseyeajayi1973 portfolio won the $2.75M Millionaire with 234.20, using 10 lineups against 161,764 entries.
- The chalk was Jeremiyah Love, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones Sr.. The portfolio held them in 1 of 10 lineups, 1 of 10 lineups and 1 of 10 lineups, and the winning lineup held 0 of them.
- Kyren Williams led the edge: 60.0% exposure against a 9.2% field, worth +11.97 points per lineup.
- The winning lineup supplied +11.57 of the +25.88 edge total. That points to an edge spread across the portfolio. The win itself still carries variance.
The result
The oluseyeajayi1973 portfolio won the $2.75M Millionaire on Sunday, Oct 4. Its best lineup scored 234.20 against 161,764 entries at $20 and took $1,000,000. Nobody shared the top spot: 1 user, 1 lineup.
The portfolio entered 10 lineups, cashed 5 and collected $1,000,150. One lineup won the contest. The portfolio's average lineup scored 144.40. The field's average lineup sat at 118.49. The edge total, +25.88 points per lineup gained against the field, is close to that gap.
The lineups used 52 players, which is 20.1% of the 259 players the field used. For a set of 10 lineups, that reads like a portfolio spread wide.
Pro view
The chalk
Every spot at the top of the ownership board was a RB. The field owned Jeremiyah Love at 29.3%, Christian McCaffrey at 28.1% and, at 26.8%, Aaron Jones Sr.. The winning portfolio held them in 1 of 10 lineups, 1 of 10 lineups and 1 of 10 lineups. The winning lineup held 0 of them.
Jeremiyah Love scored 6.50, so every lineup without him gained ground on the field: +1.28 per lineup. The other chalk backs beat the field's 13.17 per roster spot: 16.00 for Christian McCaffrey and 16.80 for Aaron Jones Sr.. The light exposure cost -0.51 and -0.61.
The lineups sat under the field on Jeremiyah Love, under the field on Christian McCaffrey and under the field on Aaron Jones Sr.. The net was small. That suggests the chalk stance made room for the win but did not produce it. The points came from where the weight went.
The edge
Kyren Williams led the edge at +11.97 per lineup. He sat at 60.0% against a 9.2% field and scored 36.70, in the winning lineup. Kenneth Walker III added +9.43 at 60.0% against 14.5%, scoring 33.90, not in the winning lineup. CeeDee Lamb added +3.03.
With the RB chalk held light, the weight on Kyren Williams reads like a pivot off Jeremiyah Love. Same position, 60.0% against 9.2%, +11.97 per lineup. The lineups show the swap. They do not say why.
The biggest fade outside the chalk was Ja'Marr Chase: 0.0% against a 19.5% field. He scored 5.70, which made his absence worth +1.46.
The winning lineup accounts for +11.57 of the edge total. The other 9 lineups averaged 134.42 and add +14.31. That points to an edge spread across the portfolio, not one hot lineup. A single lineup still won, and that part is variance.
The build
The lineups show a heavy core: Kenneth Walker III in 6 of 10 lineups, Kyren Williams in 6 of 10 lineups, and the Dolphins defense in 5 of 10 lineups. Both running backs in the core are the edge leaders. It reads like a portfolio that put its weight on the RB slot and rotated everything else.
Of the 10 lineups, 10 stacked their QB, across 10 QB teams. The most-used team, BAL, appeared in 10.0%. Bring-backs ran at 20.0%. That reads like many stacks, with bring-backs in some lineups and no single game carrying the portfolio.
The winning lineup was QB + 2 DAL + 1 bring-back. It paired Dak Prescott at 5.2% with CeeDee Lamb at 10.3% for 44.30, and Javonte Williams at 1.5% for 31.30. It used $49,800 of $50,000 and summed to 64.3% ownership. Its lowest-owned seat, at 1.1%, scored 3.30.
Near the top
Among the 10 users of the top 10, 4 were under the field or absent on Jeremiyah Love. The same was true of 4 on Christian McCaffrey and 4 on Aaron Jones Sr.. Leaving a chalk player out entirely was rare: 1, 1 and 2 users.
The highest edge total in the group, +107.48, came from a user with 1 entry and a best finish of 9th. The winning portfolio's edge total ranked 5th.
That rank sits in the upper half. A single entry's edge total is that entry alone, while a larger portfolio's is spread across its lineups.
The lesson
This week the chalk stance moved little: +1.28, -0.51 and -0.61. The overweights did the work: +11.97 and +9.43. That points to a heavy core placed where the field was light. Next week, check where your exposure is above the field before you check where it is below. A fade only clears room. The overweight has to score.
The edge spectrum: top gainers vs top detractors
Edge = (Exposure% - Field%)/100 × (FPTS - 13.17). Positive edge denotes points gained per lineup vs the field; negative edge denotes points surrendered.
Highest and lowest edge plays for oluseyeajayi1973. Field own = share of all 161,764 lineups. Winner exp = share of 10 lineups.
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Field own | Winner exp | Leverage | FPTS | Net edge | In win lineup? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | $5,900 | 9.2% | 60.0% | +50.9% | 36.70 | +11.97 | Yes |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | $8,200 | 14.5% | 60.0% | +45.5% | 33.90 | +9.43 | No |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | $7,800 | 10.3% | 20.0% | +9.7% | 44.30 | +3.03 | Yes |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | $3,300 | 15.9% | 30.0% | +14.1% | 27.90 | +2.07 | Yes |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | $6,900 | 7.3% | 20.0% | +12.7% | 28.80 | +1.98 | Yes |
| Dolphins | DST | MIA | $2,000 | 4.7% | 50.0% | +45.3% | 5.00 | -3.70 | No |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | $5,000 | 5.0% | 40.0% | +35.1% | 6.30 | -2.41 | No |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | $5,300 | 3.8% | 20.0% | +16.2% | 1.70 | -1.86 | No |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | $4,300 | 2.5% | 20.0% | +17.5% | 4.10 | -1.59 | No |
| Zach Ertz | TE | PHI | $3,100 | 1.1% | 10.0% | +8.9% | 3.30 | -0.88 | Yes |
Stack architecture & QB distribution
The portfolio stacked 10 of 10 lineups (100.0%) across 10 distinct QB franchises.
Distribution of stack configurations and non-DST opponent bring-backs across all 10 lineups.
| Stack configuration | Lineups | Share | Mean score | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB + 1 (Single Stack) | 2 | 20.0% | 120.54 | QB with 1 teammate |
| QB + 2 (Double Stack) | 7 | 70.0% | 156.49 | QB with 2 teammates (the winning lineup) |
| QB + 3 (Triple Stack) | 1 | 10.0% | 107.52 | QB with 3 teammates |
| Bring-Back (Game Stack) | 2 | 20.0% | 180.34 | Adds an opponent from the QB's game (not a DST) |
Top QB franchise allocations
Volume was dispersed across 10 teams with no franchise exceeding 10.0% of the portfolio.
Lineups per QB team, the most-used QB, the 2 most-used teammates, and the share of lineups with a bring-back.
| Team | Lineups | Exp % | Primary QB | Top stack teammates | Bring-back % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 10.0% | Lamar Jackson (1) | Derrick Henry (1), Zay Flowers (1) | 0.0% |
| BUF | 1 | 10.0% | Josh Allen (1) | James Cook III (1), DJ Moore (1) | 0.0% |
| DAL | 1 | 10.0% | Dak Prescott (1) | Javonte Williams (1), CeeDee Lamb (1) | 100.0% |
| GB | 1 | 10.0% | Jordan Love (1) | Christian Watson (1), Matthew Golden (1) | 0.0% |
| KC | 1 | 10.0% | Patrick Mahomes (1) | Kenneth Walker III (1) | 0.0% |
| Other (5 Teams) | 5 | 50.0% | 5 distinct QBs | — | 20.0% |
Roster exposure & distribution tiers
The winner rostered 52 unique players across 10 lineups (20.1% of the 259 players used by the field).
Roster concentration by exposure tier.
| Exposure tier | Players | Roster spots | % of spots | Roster archetype & notable plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor Core (30%+) | 9 | 38 | 42.2% | Kenneth Walker III (60.0%), Kyren Williams (60.0%), Dolphins (50.0%), Matthew Golden (40.0%), Jakobi Meyers (40.0%), Mike Gesicki (40.0%), Vikings (30.0%), Derrick Henry (30.0%), T.J. Hockenson (30.0%) |
| Secondary (20–30%) | 9 | 18 | 20.0% | Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dontayvion Wicks, George Kittle (+5 more) |
| Rotational Plays (10–20%) | 34 | 34 | 37.8% | Jeremiyah Love, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones Sr., Parker Washington (+30 more) |
The winning lineup
234.20 points with $200 of the $50,000 cap left. Stack: QB + 2 DAL + 1 bring-back.
Field own = share of all 161,764 lineups. Winner exp. = share of the winning portfolio's 10 lineups.
| Slot | Player | Team | Salary | Field own | Winner exp. | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott | DAL | $6,400 | 5.2% | 10.0% | 21.10 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DAL | $6,600 | 1.5% | 10.0% | 31.30 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LAR | $5,900 | 9.2% | 60.0% | 36.70 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | $7,800 | 10.3% | 20.0% | 44.30 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | $7,200 | 12.2% | 10.0% | 33.80 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | $6,900 | 7.3% | 20.0% | 28.80 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | PHI | $3,100 | 1.1% | 10.0% | 3.30 |
| FLEX | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | $3,300 | 15.9% | 30.0% | 27.90 |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | $2,600 | 1.7% | 10.0% | 7.00 |
The top 10 portfolios
Each user in the first 10 rows of the standings, by best rank. Numbers only.
Edge total = points per lineup gained against the field. Mean chalk exp. = average exposure to Jeremiyah Love, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones Sr., 0% counted.
| Best rank | Entries | Players used | Edge total | Mean chalk exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | 52 | +25.88 | 10.0% |
| 2nd | 37 | 59 | +37.47 | 19.8% |
| 3rd | 50 | 83 | +2.02 | 33.3% |
| 4th | 2 | 17 | +51.16 | 50.0% |
| 5th | 20 | 61 | +11.27 | 56.7% |
| 6th | 25 | 77 | +16.47 | 41.3% |
| 7th | 150 | 118 | +4.01 | 33.3% |
| 8th | 15 | 44 | +43.17 | 6.7% |
| 9th | 1 | 9 | +107.48 | 0.0% |
| 10th | 150 | 111 | +6.34 | 29.6% |
Open the tape
Every lineup of the winning portfolio, each player's exposure and edge against the field, and the rest of the top 10 are in Contest Analysis.
Reproduce it
The core facts come from two calls: the standings (the field block: pool size, the players the field used, the field's average lineup, the chalk) and the winner's lineups (players used, exposure, edge and the edge total). The winning lineup table comes from the contest download, and the top-10 table from each top-10 user's lineups. Every call is listed under Receipts. The calls need a Pro API key.
const BASE = 'https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235';
const headers = { Authorization: 'Bearer <YOUR_API_KEY>' }; // a Pro key
type Standings = { standings: Array<{ rank: number; username: string; points: number }> };
type UserLineups = {
user: { entries: number; players_used: number; avg_points: number; edge_total: number };
exposure: Array<{ name: string | null; lineups: number; exposure_pct: number; field_pct: number | null; edge: number | null }>;
};
const get = async <T>(path: string): Promise<T> => {
const res = await fetch(`${BASE}${path}`, { headers });
if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`${res.status} ${await res.text()}`);
return (await res.json()) as T;
};
const top = await get<Standings>('/standings?limit=10');
const winner = top.standings[0].username;
const tape = await get<UserLineups>(`/users/${encodeURIComponent(winner)}/lineups`);
console.log(winner, tape.user.entries, tape.user.players_used, tape.user.edge_total);
for (const p of [...tape.exposure].sort((a, b) => (b.edge ?? 0) - (a.edge ?? 0)).slice(0, 3))
console.log(p.name, p.lineups, p.exposure_pct, p.field_pct, p.edge);
Endpoints behind this post
GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/standings?limit=10The standings and the field block: pool size, the field's average lineup, the chalk (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/oluseyeajayi1973/lineupsEvery lineup of one user, with players used, exposure and edge (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/download?format=jsonEvery lineup of the contest and the player pool with field ownership (Pro)Built automatically from the contest data. Every number links to its API call.
GET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/seasons?sport=nfl2026-10-05T11:55:16ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/nfl/context?season=2026&week=42026-10-05T11:55:16ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/download?format=json&enrich=dfs.player_stats2026-10-05T11:55:19ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/4734592026-10-05T11:55:19ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slate_settings/1302026-10-05T11:55:19ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/standings?limit=102026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/oluseyeajayi1973/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/brich34/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/nole91/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/MattC100/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/hittinmiddle/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/kfish191/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/phils44/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/beaujarrell/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/yeds30/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/20754235/users/joffyy/lineups2026-10-05T11:55:20Z