Aaron Rodgers at CPT at 6.1%: the $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown tape
The field played the winning captain in 57.0% of lineups in any seat. The winning lineup moved him to CPT.
- The winning lineup put Aaron Rodgers at CPT, a captain outside the field's top 3 at 6.1%. The field had him in a FLEX seat in 51.0% of its lineups.
- The portfolio was 1 lineup. It was one of 39 lineups tied for first among 88,235 entries.
- The team split was 5 PIT + 1 CLE, one of the field's less common splits, used in 11.3% of the field's lineups.
- The edge total was +26.67 points per lineup gained against the field.
The result
The Pawvi portfolio won the $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown on Thursday, Oct 1, PIT @ CLE, with 120.74 points against 88,235 entries. It was 1 lineup with 6 players, a small portfolio. The field used 37 of the 42 players in the pool.
That lineup was one of 39 tied for first, and the rank-one payout was $21,288.46. A tie that size is a plain reminder: one winning lineup is one outcome of many. What follows explains a build. It does not prove a strategy.
The captain
The winning lineup put Aaron Rodgers at CPT, a captain outside the field's top 3 at 6.1%. He ranked 6th among the field's captains, out of 27 players the field used in that seat. His captain row scored 35.94.
The portfolio held Jaylen Warren at CPT in 0 of 1 lineup; the field was at 27.4%. His captain row scored 23.40. Our projection had Aaron Rodgers at 7.3% as captain before lock; the field captained him in 6.1% of its lineups.
Captain and FLEX
The field did not leave Aaron Rodgers out. It had him in a FLEX seat in 51.0% of its lineups and in any seat in 57.0%. The winning lineup had him at CPT in 1 of 1 lineup, a captain leverage of +93.9% over the field.
With Jaylen Warren, the lineup did the reverse. The field captained him in 27.4% of its lineups and had him in a FLEX seat in 51.2%. The winning lineup had him in a FLEX seat in 1 of 1 lineup.
The lineup used Jaylen Warren (78.6% of the field's lineups) and Aaron Rodgers (57.0%), both played heavily by the field. The seats differed: the field had Aaron Rodgers in a FLEX seat in 51.0% of its lineups, and the lineup put him at CPT. Jaylen Warren, the field's top captain, sat in a FLEX seat. The data cannot say why the lineup was built that way.
The build
The team split was 5 PIT + 1 CLE, one of the field's less common splits, used in 11.3% of the field's lineups. The field's most common split was 3 CLE + 3 PIT, at 34.7%. The lineup left $300 of salary unused. The field left $1,277 on average, and 9.4% of its lineups used the whole cap.
The CLE seat went to Quinshon Judkins, who added the most edge of any player at +4.12. The field had him in any seat in 38.5% of its lineups. DK Metcalf added +3.04. Deshaun Watson, in 70.6% of the field's lineups in any seat, was in 0 of 1 lineup.
The edge total was +26.67 points per lineup gained against the field. With 1 entry, that points to a portfolio number that is really one lineup's number. It is not a measure of a repeatable build.
Near the top
With 39 lineups tied for first, all of the top 10 rows sit inside that tie. They belong to 10 users. All 10 of them had Aaron Rodgers at CPT in their best lineup. 3 of those users entered a single lineup.
On Deshaun Watson, 5 users ran well below the field, and 3 had him in no lineup. On Jaylen Warren, 0 left him out entirely.
3 users entered as many lineups as the winner. Their edge totals all match at +26.67. The winner's edge total ranks the highest among the top users, a rank it shares. That suggests the larger portfolios in the tie gave back edge through their other lineups. The tie itself does not show that.
The lesson
This tape points to the seat as the lever: a captain outside the field's top 3 at CPT, a player the field still played in a FLEX seat in 51.0% of its lineups. One tie at the top does not prove it will happen again.
Next time, put each player's captain ownership next to his FLEX ownership before you build. Then check where your CPT mix leaves the field before you check your FLEX.
The winning lineup
120.74 points with $300 of the $50,000 cap left. CPT: Aaron Rodgers. Team split: 5 PIT + 1 CLE.
Field CPT and Field FLEX = share of all 88,235 lineups with the player in that slot. Winner CPT and Winner FLEX = share of the winning portfolio's 1 lineups. A CPT seat scores and costs the captain price.
| Slot | Player | Team | Salary | Pts | Field CPT | Field FLEX | Winner CPT | Winner FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | $14,700 | 35.94 | 6.1% | 51.0% | 1 of 1 lineup | 0 of 1 lineup |
| FLEX | Jaylen Warren | PIT | $9,600 | 15.60 | 27.4% | 51.2% | 0 of 1 lineup | 1 of 1 lineup |
| FLEX | DK Metcalf | PIT | $9,000 | 19.50 | 7.1% | 26.7% | 0 of 1 lineup | 1 of 1 lineup |
| FLEX | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | $8,800 | 21.60 | 7.9% | 30.7% | 0 of 1 lineup | 1 of 1 lineup |
| FLEX | Roman Wilson | PIT | $4,000 | 16.40 | 2.5% | 20.1% | 0 of 1 lineup | 1 of 1 lineup |
| FLEX | Darnell Washington | PIT | $3,600 | 11.70 | 0.9% | 11.2% | 0 of 1 lineup | 1 of 1 lineup |
CPT and FLEX: the winner against the field
Captains used: 1 by the winning portfolio, 27 by the field. Leverage = the winner's share of lineups with the player in that slot minus the field's, in percentage points.
The winner's most-used players. Leverage = the winner's share minus the field's, in percentage points, for the CPT slot and the FLEX slot apart.
| Player | Pos | Team | Winner CPT | Field CPT | CPT leverage | Winner FLEX | Field FLEX | FLEX leverage | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 100.0% | 6.1% | +93.9% | 0.0% | 51.0% | -51.0% | 23.96 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 0.0% | 7.1% | -7.1% | 100.0% | 26.7% | +73.3% | 19.50 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 0.0% | 27.4% | -27.4% | 100.0% | 51.2% | +48.8% | 15.60 |
| Darnell Washington | TE | PIT | 0.0% | 0.9% | -0.9% | 100.0% | 11.2% | +88.8% | 11.70 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | PIT | 0.0% | 2.5% | -2.5% | 100.0% | 20.1% | +79.9% | 16.40 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 0.0% | 7.9% | -7.9% | 100.0% | 30.7% | +69.3% | 21.60 |
Team split
The winning lineup was 5 PIT + 1 CLE. The field's most common split was 3 CLE + 3 PIT (34.7% of its lineups).
Lineups by seats per team. Field = share of all 88,235 lineups. Winner = share of the winning portfolio's 1 lineups.
| Team split | Field | Winner | Winner lineups |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 CLE + 3 PIT | 34.7% | 0.0% | 0 |
| 4 PIT + 2 CLE | 26.4% | 0.0% | 0 |
| 4 CLE + 2 PIT | 20.3% | 0.0% | 0 |
| 5 PIT + 1 CLE (the winning lineup) | 11.3% | 100.0% | 1 |
| 5 CLE + 1 PIT | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0 |
Our pre-lock projection next to the field
Our projected CPT and FLEX ownership as it stood before lock (8:15 PM ET), next to what the field did. Projections are our opinion; the table shows the two numbers side by side.
Our projection = the last value stamped before lock, one row per slot (STAT_API_LATEST, engine 2.2). Field = the contest's actual ownership in that slot.
| Player | In the winning lineup | Our CPT projection | Field CPT | Our FLEX projection | Field FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | CPT | 7.3% | 6.1% | 53.8% | 51.0% |
| Jaylen Warren | FLEX | 33.2% | 27.4% | 49.9% | 51.2% |
| DK Metcalf | FLEX | 5.2% | 7.1% | 24.5% | 26.7% |
| Quinshon Judkins | FLEX | 9.2% | 7.9% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| Roman Wilson | FLEX | 2.0% | 2.5% | 17.0% | 20.1% |
| Darnell Washington | FLEX | 0.6% | 0.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% |
The edge spectrum: top gainers vs top detractors
Edge = (Exposure% - Field%)/100 × (FPTS - 14.91). Positive edge denotes points gained per lineup vs the field; negative edge denotes points surrendered.
Highest and lowest edge plays for Pawvi. Field own = share of all 88,235 lineups, any slot. Winner exp = share of 1 lineups.
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Field own | Winner exp | Leverage | FPTS | Net edge | In win lineup? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | $8,800 | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5% | 21.60 | +4.12 | Yes |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | $9,800 | 57.0% | 100.0% | +43.0% | 23.96 | +3.89 | Yes |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | $9,000 | 33.8% | 100.0% | +66.3% | 19.50 | +3.04 | Yes |
| Roman Wilson | WR | PIT | $4,000 | 22.6% | 100.0% | +77.4% | 16.40 | +1.16 | Yes |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | $9,600 | 78.6% | 100.0% | +21.4% | 15.60 | +0.15 | Yes |
| Darnell Washington | TE | PIT | $3,600 | 12.0% | 100.0% | +88.0% | 11.70 | -2.82 | Yes |
The top 10 portfolios
Each user in the first 10 rows of the standings, by best rank. Numbers only.
Edge total = points per lineup gained against the field. Mean chalk exp. = average exposure to Jaylen Warren, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, 0% counted. Top CPT exp. = share of the user's lineups with Jaylen Warren, the field's most-captained player, at CPT.
| Best rank | Entries | Players used | Edge total | Mean chalk exp. | CPTs used | Top CPT exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +26.67 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +26.67 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 20 | 16 | +6.68 | 68.3% | 8 | 50.0% |
| 1st | 150 | 21 | -1.53 | 67.8% | 10 | 21.3% |
| 1st | 19 | 18 | +3.89 | 77.2% | 12 | 10.5% |
| 1st | 150 | 25 | +0.68 | 66.0% | 14 | 26.0% |
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +26.67 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 42 | 16 | +7.61 | 81.0% | 14 | 19.0% |
| 1st | 53 | 19 | +2.70 | 74.2% | 12 | 20.8% |
| 1st | 150 | 20 | -1.91 | 71.1% | 12 | 36.0% |
Open the tape
Every lineup of the winning portfolio, each player's CPT and FLEX use against the field, and the rest of the top 10 are in Contest Analysis.
Reproduce it
The contest has the biggest prize pool of the night's 810 guaranteed pre-game DraftKings Showdown contests. The core facts come from the standings (the field block), the winner's lineups (players used, exposure, captain lineups, edge) and the contest download (each player's CPT and FLEX ownership in the field, every lineup for the team split). Our projection comes from the contest's projections call, as it stood before lock (STAT_API_LATEST, engine 2.2). Every call is listed under Receipts. The calls need a Pro API key.
const BASE = 'https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328';
const headers = { Authorization: 'Bearer <YOUR_API_KEY>' }; // a Pro key
type Standings = { standings: Array<{ rank: number; username: string; points: number }> };
type UserLineups = {
user: { entries: number; players_used: number; edge_total: number };
exposure: Array<{ name: string | null; lineups: number; captain_lineups: number | null; field_pct: number | null }>;
};
const get = async <T>(path: string): Promise<T> => {
const res = await fetch(`${BASE}${path}`, { headers });
if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`${res.status} ${await res.text()}`);
return (await res.json()) as T;
};
const top = await get<Standings>('/standings?limit=10');
const winner = top.standings[0].username;
const tape = await get<UserLineups>(`/users/${encodeURIComponent(winner)}/lineups`);
for (const p of [...tape.exposure].sort((a, b) => (b.captain_lineups ?? 0) - (a.captain_lineups ?? 0)).slice(0, 3))
console.log(p.name, 'captain in', p.captain_lineups, 'of', tape.user.entries, 'lineups');
Endpoints behind this post
GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/standings?limit=10The standings and the field block: pool size, the field's average lineup, the chalk (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/Pawvi/lineupsEvery lineup of one user, with exposure, captain lineups and edge (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/download?format=jsonEvery lineup of the contest and the player pool with field, captain and FLEX ownership (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/projectionsOur projection for the contest, with a captain row and a FLEX row per player (Pro)Built automatically from the contest data. Every number links to its API call.
GET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/seasons?sport=nfl2026-10-02T19:13:39ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/nfl/games?season_id=2026&week=4&season_type=regular_season&limit=1002026-10-02T19:13:39ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates?operator_id=1&date=2026-10-012026-10-02T19:13:40ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests?slate_id=4813782026-10-02T19:13:41ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/download?format=json&enrich=dfs.player_stats2026-10-02T19:13:41ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/4813782026-10-02T19:13:41ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slate_settings/1482026-10-02T19:13:41ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/standings?limit=102026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/Pawvi/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/Vegas107/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/ChevChelios/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/jmoore3903/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/Luck-of-the-Draw/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/LeVerticalDFS/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/Turtle_Speed/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/opher/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/hzdaniel/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/users/hixx/lineups2026-10-02T19:13:42ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/21773328/projections2026-10-02T19:13:42Z